In the mobile market, the view that MVNOs will be key in unlocking long-term subscriptions growth. However, q-o-q growth rates as of 2016 did not average above 1% , implying sluggish growth conditions. Official data estimate more than 73mn inactive SIMs in the market. There is therefore a high possibility of the regulator initiating a SIM discounting campaign, leading to slow or negative growth in the coming quarters.
That said, we expect 3G/4G to continue being a significant growth driver in the overall mobile market. Operators are increasingly focusing on data services as a revenue and subscriber growth path, on the back of penetration reaching 160%.
TCI’s investments into rural areas and its offer of converged services will continue to keep subscription growth in the positive. In the broadband segment, we believe the high cost of bandwidth will continue to be a drag on subscription growth. However, the vernment’s five-year ICT plan and the planned national fibre network will pose a long-term upside risk to the growth of broadband access.